Leo
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I don't believe in the moon, I think it's just the back of the sun.
Posts: 280
Original Join Date: September 30, 2008
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Post by Leo on Apr 7, 2017 2:41:31 GMT
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Jinn
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Posts: 73
Original Join Date: April 4th, 1984
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Post by Jinn on Apr 10, 2017 9:57:20 GMT
This is my personal take on it.
Russian media sources (RT) insist that there were no chemical attacks. They seem to be providing the clearest picture of whats been happening across there since the civil war thus far. So I'm a bit divided on this as to whether this actually happened or if its just a red herring.
But 23 of 59 fired tomahawk missiles actually striking the intended target? Come on, the US military isn't that sloppy.
And what was destroyed were mainly empty hangers and air crafts in disrepair. Hell the runway is still intact from what I've gathered. The strike on the Syrian air base was just a expensive military fireworks show.
Also very noteworthy. And coincidental.
President Xi of China was scheduled to meet with President Trump to discuss a myriad of things - apart from forex and trade, China's handle of North Korea is high on the agenda.
Its beginning to smell like Machiavellian bully tactics.
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Selena
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Odinsdottir
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Post by Selena on Apr 11, 2017 0:35:38 GMT
Republican, but especially Trump-ian, foreign policy is similar being a temperamental buff guy at the bar who feels the need to "assert his dominance" whenever he gets mildly insulted. And then he ends up punching the concrete wall behind his intended target. But blames it on the other guy.
If this escalates into another "regime change" deployment, it's going to go as well as the last dozen times have. We'll go in, blow everything up, spend numerous years there to maintain order, watch as the country slowly unravels into discord, decide enough is enough and withdraw forces, and then a brand new radical group seizes control in the resulting power vacuum.
Had Russia and the US never gotten involved, this war would have resolved itself years ago -- in one way or another. But we both keep the factions propped up, even though they're both half dead.
Watching opinions change on Syria has been fascinating. Trump supporters are falling in line, even though mere months ago they were saying all Syrians were animals who should be left to fight their own war.
I find it curious that a single chemical attack has tugged on so many heartstrings when the death tolls are utterly dwarfed by the many years of conventional warfare.
In fairness, Syria is Russia's pet project in the same way that Iraq was the US's pet project -- both campaigns were riddled with propaganda. Russia will naturally deny anything that paints their "designated faction" as being too cruel, just as the US will deny that the rebels also do terrible shit and potentially have ties to radical groups. There are no clean hands in Syria anymore. All the heroes died a long time ago. All that's left are the desperate, and the desperate throw morals to the wayside.
As for Tomahawks missing their target, that seems like a fair enough number for accurate strikes. Even in the age of smart bombs, the miss rate is surprisingly high in long-range strikes.
Calling Russia ahead of time is standard practice, too, since we're not directly at war with them. We do that with every country that's operating in the same general region. Neither of these things are necessarily red flags.
Trump was supposedly warned not to start a conflict with Syria and North Korea at the same time, but things evolve quickly in his chaotic administration. With so many staff shakeups and internal conflicts, it's difficult to really know who is calling the shots. The next couple weeks will determine how things go. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if something happened. Nationalism breeds a hunger for war -- war manufactures patriotic unity.
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Egann
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Post by Egann on Apr 11, 2017 13:21:38 GMT
So let's start with a couple observations. - We were pretty much destined to do something in Syria because this is ISIS's headquarters. That said, attacking the regime--even if they used nerve gas on their own--isn't productive to our own ends.
- The abysmal hit ratio is likely deliberate. These things are GPS-guided million-dollar missiles. They don't miss airfield-sized targets except on purpose. I can only hazard a guess as to why you would spread the attack so thin, but it was on purpose.
- Russia has ulterior motives all over the place. Their inspectors said Syria had no nerve agents, they're against regime change because they want to use Syria's ports to the Mediterranean...there are a lot.
My guess is this is a show of force. Trump doesn't want to actually commit to intervening in full scale, in part because that would step on Russia's toes. At least that's my guess. I confess, I don't really have a solid grasp on this one and I have no idea where it's going.
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Selena
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Odinsdottir
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Post by Selena on Apr 11, 2017 21:06:11 GMT
Updated to expand thread topic.
While all this is going on, the USS Carl Vinson carrier group has been redirected to the Korean peninsula. In response, North Korea has threatened a nuclear strike if they get too close or persist in their operations.
Granted, this is North Korea. They threaten to nuke the clouds if it's rainy. But tensions are certainly high and I find the new administration to be.... unpredictable.
The Orange One tweeted: "If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A!"
USA, USA!
So, this is another rapidly evolving situation.
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Jinn
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Posts: 73
Original Join Date: April 4th, 1984
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Post by Jinn on Apr 13, 2017 10:51:41 GMT
Update to the updated expanded thread topic that now includes general war themes.
China ordered their cargo ships to return from Korean waters and has deployed their military at the N. Korea border. Japan has lent support and is currently recalling its people from South Korea whilst mobilizing naval military.
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's approach to the matter is to "denuclearize the Korean peninsula amicably".
Failing that, looks like the pre-emptive strike is gonna be initiated by the East itself.
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Jinn
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Posts: 73
Original Join Date: April 4th, 1984
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Post by Jinn on Apr 13, 2017 10:59:22 GMT
Also the country of Somalia was reclassified as a Warzone early last week. But that's not likely to become a topic of interest. Until poorly planned refugee imports turn to a crisis with the receiving countries. Wait a minute... *does the Merkel dance*
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Post by SteveT on Apr 13, 2017 17:50:43 GMT
A military alliance between China and Japan. That's something I didn't expect to see in my lifetime.
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Leo
Member
I don't believe in the moon, I think it's just the back of the sun.
Posts: 280
Original Join Date: September 30, 2008
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Post by Leo on Apr 13, 2017 21:21:56 GMT
It won't last long unfortunately, everyone will go back to disputing those islands once Kimmy Jong calms down.
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Egann
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Post by Egann on Apr 13, 2017 23:22:54 GMT
A military alliance between China and Japan. That's something I didn't expect to see in my lifetime. Me neither. Trump offered China an irresistable trade deal by the sound of things. Tiny nation you use as a distraction or a favorable trade deal with your largest trading partner? Hmm. Difficult decision. While I hope North Korea isn't long for the world, this is still massively up in the air. If Kim Jong Un is smart he'll back down, but if he were my definition of smart he would have dismantled the military infrastructure and opened the border with South Korea. I'm not holding my breath for dictators to be smart. Trump also just dropped a fucking huge bomb on an ISIS-controlled cave shelter. I don't think it will actually do much, but the idea of dropping one 10-ton bomb which looks like one of Hitler's Vengeance weapon flunkies out of an MC-130 makes me giggle.
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Selena
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Odinsdottir
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Post by Selena on Apr 14, 2017 4:50:57 GMT
Yeah, I'm curious as to what actually happened at that meeting with the Chinese president. Trump had gone from "China, China, CCHHHHIIINNNA, they're stealing jobs and manipulating currency, China," to saying that they're aren't currency manipulators after all. And otherwise taking a more amicable tone.
They're still kind of a wildcard if shit were to hit the fan, but their current position is a surprise no matter what happens next.
Another recent event is the US saying they have a preemptive strike planned out should North Korea appear to go for the nukes. Which goes without saying. The US has no doubt had several plans in place for NK should the worst happen. But releasing this information to the press right now is strategic timing.
Some of the reports about potential future action remind me of the atmosphere right before Iraq.
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Jinn
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Posts: 73
Original Join Date: April 4th, 1984
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Post by Jinn on Apr 25, 2017 10:50:48 GMT
I don't think it'll do much to stem the front on ISIS militia as well. I remember when growing up - this region and its cave network was a 'conspirator favorite' running amok with theories that it was run and managed by the CIA during the Cold War. Who knows? I just remembered it that's all haha. Also RE: NK - situation seems to be at a standstill for the past week or so, nothing significant accomplished in alleviating tensions.
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